Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Fair Behavior and Inflation Persistence

Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation in Iran: New Evidence on Inflation Persistence Using a Smooth Transition Model

T his paper investigates the asymmetric behavior of inflation. We use logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model to characterize the regime-switching behavior of Iran’s monthly inflation during the period May 1990 to December 2013. We find that there is a triple relationship between the inflation level, its fluctuations and persistence. The findings imply that the behavi...

بررسی رابطه انحرافات نرخ ارز و ماندگاری تورم در ایران

The main goal of this paper is to study the relationship between exchange rate misalignments and inflation persistence in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, we first use a non-linear smooth transition regression model to estimate equilibrium exchange rate in the context of a monetary model for the period 1978:2-2012:1. This allows us to compute exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium lev...

Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Aging and Asset Prices

Misalignment on the Persistence of Inflation in Iran

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate misalignment on inflation persistence. For this purpose, Vector Auto Regression method and Markov Switching model is used for quarterly data during 1989:4 -2014:3. The results show that, the impact of liquidity growth and exchange rate misalignment on inflation persistence is positive. On the other hand, GDP growth has a ne...

ارزیابی ماندگاری تورم در ایران

Inflation is one of the most important problems in Iran throughout last decades, and the historical studies of inflation trend in Iran indicate persistence of this variable. Inflation persistence refers to the tendency of inflation to converge slowly towards its long-run measure (equilibrium inflation) in response to various economic shocks. The historical measuring of inflation persistenc...